It’s excellent news for Enzo Maresca as City travel up to the Premier League, with Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United’s troubles to survive likely being a one-off.
The Premier League’s three newly promoted teams have all returned to where they started, with their time in the spotlight lasting only one season.
In fact, they’ve come down with a whimper. Luton, the best of the bunch, finished in 18th position with just 26 points, the lowest total in Premier League history. Nottingham Forest survived with 32 points, the lowest of any remaining club.
It appears to be an unsettling sign for Leicester City as they prepare to return to the Premier League. There is a financial gap between the top flight and the Championship, and this season has shown that it is becoming increasingly difficult to bridge.
“The gap is getting bigger and bigger,” former Brighton striker Glenn Murray stated on BBC’s Final Score this weekend. “The Premier League is such a dominant league, and I think (all three promoted clubs teams being relegated) will happen more and more often.”
Murray did, however, add: “I believe Leicester can buck the trend next year. They clearly still have a very quality squad coming up from the Championship.”
But is there a pattern that the city should buck? Is the combined bad performance of Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United a worrying warning for clubs emerging from the Championship, or were they an anomaly? We dug into the numbers from the last 20 years to answer some critical questions.
Are more promoted clubs dropping back down?
Yes, but only just. Over the last five seasons, more than half of the promoted clubs have been relegated, with eight of the fifteen failing to stay in the Premier League for more than a year.
The rolling five-year average is the highest it has been in 15 years. However, staying up currently is only as difficult as going to the Premier League in 2010. It’s too early to say that a promoted club has never faced greater challenges.
In reality, none of the promoted clubs have been demoted in the last two decades, with Fulham, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest remaining up last year. Another of those seasons occurred recently, in 2018.
Are promoted teams winning less points?
With 66 points between Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United, the promoted clubs had their poorest season in over 20 years. In fact, two of the poorest three cumulative totals in the past two decades have occurred in the last three years, with Norwich, Watford, and Brentford scoring only 91 points in 2021.
As a rolling five-year average, the promoted teams’ cumulative points have now reached their lowest point in 20 years. However, there is insufficient information to establish a trend. The graphic shows that the points won by promoted clubs have remained fairly stable for quite some time.
Enzo Maresca claimed that 90% of promoted clubs are involved in relegation battles after their promotion, although the data contradict this. Over the last 20 years, 17 of the 60 teams to advance have earned 45 points or more, putting them in a relatively safe position to survive.
During that time, ten teams finished in the top half, with eight scoring 50 or more points. When you look closer, you’ll notice that half of the 50-point clubs have been formed in the last six seasons.
Prior to this season, at least one newly promoted team has reached 50 points in four of the previous five years, starting with Wolves in 2019, followed by Sheffield United in 2020, Leeds in 2021, and Fulham in 2023. It demonstrates that there is no barrier to promoted teams having very excellent seasons.
Does it matter where you finish in the Championship?
In short, does City have an edge as Championship winners? Sort of. Over the last 20 years, eight second-tier title holders have been relegated immediately. However, the same number applies to second-place finishers as well.
Play-off winners appear to have a little more difficult time staying up. Eleven of the last twenty have gone straight back down.
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