Most sportsbooks now put the Green Bay Packers as 5 or 5.5-point underdogs in their first round clash against the Philadelphia Eagles, up from 4 to 4.5 earlier this week. The total has decreased from 47 to 45.5. For both sides, it has been a week of closely monitored and regularly updated player injuries. Below is a summary of Friday’s report.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been cleared to play after injuring his elbow in Week 18 against the Bears. Jalen Hurts has been allowed to play under center for the Eagles after passing the concussion protocol for a head injury sustained during Week 16. Both quarterbacks were fully involved in Friday’s practice. Notably, Packers linebacker Quay Walker, safety Evan Williams, lineman Andre Dillard, and defensive linemen Brenton Cox and TJ Slaton are all questionable. Except for Dillard, who took part in full, all of these had limited participation on Friday. WR Christian Watson is out, as is CB Jaire Alexander. That’s ancient news. Zayne Anderson, the safety, will also miss the game due to a concussion.
Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown was a full participant on Friday. Dealing with a tight back, WR Devonta Smith recorded a DNP but has yet to be officially classified on the injury report. Moving on to the betting lines. How Lines Moved Throughout the Week Despite the uncertainty surrounding Love and Watson’s condition, Green Bay entered as 3.5-point underdogs on Sunday evening. Hurts was expected to play, but he had not yet cleared protocol for Philadelphia, adding to the confusion.
That 3.5 rocketed up nearly instantly to 4 to 4.5, then briefly to 5.5 before dropping back down. It remained around 4.5 for the majority of the week before rising again today. Some bookies now have Green Bay at more than +200 on the moneyline, up from +150 previously. With Watson ruled out for the season on Monday, the Packers receiving positive news on defensive guys like as Walker and Williams, and Love confirmed as a go, it will be interesting to watch this movement.
While Hurts was not guaranteed to play, it was widely anticipated that he would start, despite Adam Schefter’s claims earlier in the week casting doubt on his status. Packers coach Matt LaFleur also stated that Love would be ready to play against the Eagles just hours after the Bears game, but it was unclear whether he would suffer any lingering consequences. It does not appear like either quarterback will be significantly harmed by their individual injuries.
AJ Brown missed Thursday practice after being limited on Wednesday due to a knee ailment, but this was allegedly only for rest. Perhaps his DNP caused some hesitation among Philly fans, which was resolved today. Smith’s absence, however, may be upsetting some Eagles supporters. All of this is to indicate that injury updates and line movement appear to be moving in opposite directions. If anything, the revisions have aided the Packers since their chances have become longer. Bettors Don’t Believe in the Green Bay Packers, Jordan Love?
The market appears to be confident in the Eagles. The betting public has not slammed Philadelphia (60% of tickets) as it has with the Chargers over the Texans (73%), but they are the far more popular team. It’s probable that significant professional money has also poured into Philadelphia, driving the figure up. Typically, “sharp” bettors do not pile on public sides or big favorites. The early week move up from -3.5 makes sense, especially considering the Packers’ questionable injury situation, but that extra point makes a significant difference in a tight market at this time in the week. Perhaps those in the know actually favored the Eagles as 4.5-point favorites.
At +-5.5, the play had to be Packers or nothing. Whatever the case, it appears that the majority does not believe Green Bay will stay inside the margin, let alone pull off the road upset. Given their recent performance in major games, most recently losing to the Vikings in Week 17 and Detroit in Week 14 (albeit by a combined 5 points), the Packers are clearly at a buy-low stage. It is debatable if they are underappreciated now or overvalued in the future. At this point in the season, it’s difficult to identify a line that’s skewed either way.
Still, and even more so in the face of doubt, Love and his teammates have a chance to remind the world–or rather, prove it, given Green Bay’s 3-5 record versus the aforementioned teams.This team is made up of 500 opponents.
Leave a Reply