For the 2024 Atlanta Braves offense, it’s déjà vu all over again.
How quickly we forget that at this stage in the season, the 2023 Braves were doing similarly to the 2024 Braves this year. This gives reason for hope in the team’s offense.
After being swept in Los Angeles by the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves are 20-12 with one-fifth of the 2024 season completed.
MLB Next Game: Atlanta Braves
Putting aside the NL East division standings for a moment, there are many parallels between where the 2023 Braves stood after a Cinco de Mayo loss last year and where the 2024 Braves are after a Cinco de Mayo loss this year.
Last year, Max Fried received the loss as the Braves lost 9-4 to the Baltimore Orioles, allowing seven runs (five earned) over six frames, while Jesse Chavez had a spotless final inning.
Fast forward a year, and Fried lost again, this time after surrendering four earned runs in seven innings, while Chavez pitched two-thirds of an inning without a hit.
Last year’s Cinco de Mayo Braves starting lineup saw Braden Shewmake go 0-for-4 while making his only start for Atlanta at shortstop, a forgotten footnote in an offensive season that broke records.
Following the loss, here’s where the rest of the lineup stands on May 6, 2023:
Ronald Acuna, Jr. (RF) (.352/.444/.578)
Matt Olson (1B):.244/.364/.520
Austin Riley (3B):.256/.345/.432.
Sean Murphy (C):.296/.439/.653.
Eddie Rosario (LF):.247/.293/.419
Ozzie Albies (2B):.295/.333/.574.
Marcell Ozuna (DH) (.147/.256/.360)
Sam Hilliard (CF):.266/.329/.484.
Braden Shewmake (SS).000/.00/.000
Jumping into the present, here’s yesterday’s starting lineup after the Dodgers lost the final game of the series:
Ronald Acuna, Jr. (RF) (.268/.376/.362)
Ozzie Albies (2B):.297/.355/.446
Austin Riley (3B):.237/.310/.397.
Matt Olson (1B):.197/.317/.359.
Marcell Ozuna (DH) (.306/.382/.603)
Orlando Arcia (SS):.271/.294/.407.
Michell Harris II (CF):.271/.309/.403.
Adam Duvall (LF):.220/.298/.380.
Chadwick Tromp (C):.219/.235/.313.
It’s easy to forget that this time last year, Harris II and Arcia were both still injured. Ozuna was performing so poorly that most people assumed his release was imminent. Acuna, Jr. and Murphy led the team’s offensive efforts.
Albies is putting up nearly comparable numbers to last year (slugging notwithstanding), but Ozuna has been leading the team, while Olson and Riley have both gotten off to sluggish starts, like they did last year. The squad has been without Murphy for almost the whole season, and Albies has been out for about two weeks.
The team’s slugging is down across the board, yet the 2023 Braves were 22-11 as of May 5, barely 1.5 games ahead of the 2024 Braves team.
There is cause to be optimistic about the team, particularly its potentially lethal offense.
According to Baseball Savant, despite the team’s troubles this season, the Braves continue to lead baseball in Hard Hit% (45.1) and Exit Velocity (90.6). They are third in XWOBACON and XWOBA, trailing only the Dodgers and Orioles, and fourth in XSLG, trailing those two clubs and the Kansas City Royals. The Braves also rank fourth in barrel percentage, just behind the Athletics, and fifth in XBA.
The squad has failed to get the ball in the air, with a Launch Angle of 12.8, which is in the bottom half of the MLB and somewhat lower than the average of 12.9. In comparison, the Dodgers and Orioles rank second and third in terms of launch angle.
Last season, the Braves finished first in Hard Hit% (46.0), Exit Velocity (91.0), Barrel%, XWOBACON, XWOBA, XSLG, and XBA. Where did they rank at the end of the year in terms of launch angle? Worse than this season, they are in the lowest one-third of the league, with a 12.1 angle, which is lower than the league average of 12.8.
Much has been made of the Braves’ increased groundball rate this season, but in comparison to the entire 2023 season, when Atlanta hit grounders at a 43.4% clip, the Braves are only slightly worse, with a GB% of 44.3. This places the squad ninth in baseball this season. They ranked eighth in that category last year.
When examining the HR/FB ratio, one of the more telltale stats that something unusual is going on in the game this season.
In 2023, the Braves were the best in baseball by a large margin, with a 19.1% HR/FB ratio, while the Twins finished second with 15.4%. This year has been a very different tale, with the Braves now ranking 13th in the league at 10.8%. The Orioles top MLB with a 14.4% rate, which would have ranked eighth last season.
Last year, MLB slugged.414 overall, with the Braves leading the way with a.501 slugging percentage. This year, MLB had a.383 slugging percentage, with the Braves coming in third at.416. The power outcome is down 7.5% throughout the game from previous season, but for the Braves it is further more pronounced, down 17.5%.
Your eyes haven’t deceived you as you’ve witnessed Braves sluggers blast what appears to be a no-doubt home run only to die on the warning track.
Return to the division. Unlike last year, the Phillies did not start slowly – they were 15-18 after their May 5, 2023, loss to Boston – thus the 2024 NL East looks very different. Atlanta is currently trailing Philadelphia by 2.5 games this season, down from 7.0 games the previous year.
The Braves still have 80 percent of the 2024 season remaining to play. Hopefully, those favorable offensive indicators, combined with the Braves’ continued second-place status in BABIP, indicate that the team is only a few tweaks and a couple of lucky breaks away from going in the right direction again.
Everyone is happier when the result equals or exceeds the process. Unfortunately for Atlanta’s offensive, that has not been the case thus far in the 2024 season. The Braves simply need to stick to the process, since there are plenty underlying grounds for confidence.
