The first major deal of the MLB season occurred last night. The Miami Marlins traded two-time hitting champion Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres for four minor league players.
No one is better at putting bat to ball than Arraez. In his six-year career, the 27-year-old second baseman has a.324 batting average, 180 walks, and only 176 strikeouts. His 7.5% strikeout rate is by far the best in MLB since his debut in 2019, with no one else falling below 9.3%. Alex Bregman and Juan Soto are the only other qualified players who walked more than they struck out during that time period.
He led the American League with a.316 hitting average for the Minnesota Twins in 2022 before being traded to Miami, where he hit.354 last year. This season, he has a.299/.347/.372 batting line and has yet to hit a long run. He earns $10.6 million and has two more years of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent.
He will fill the Padres’ designated hitter spot. Manny Machado was relegated to DH duties for the opening few weeks of the season while he recovered from offseason surgery, but he has now returned to his usual third base position. Arraez is mostly a second baseman with little first-base experience, but he is a terrible defensive player. Statcast shows that he has -46 Outs Above Average in his career. Xander Bogaerts is San Diego’s everyday second baseman, while Jake Cronenworth plays first.
Arraez will likely bat at the top of the order, providing a more traditional leadoff hitter than Jurickson Profar. This will move a shifting cast of bench players, including Tyler Wade and Graham Pauley, out of a regular spot in the lineup.
The Padres are 17-18 and occupy second in the NL West. FanGraphs estimates their playoff chances at 47.1%. Arraez gives them a stronger offensive threat, increasing their chances of playing in October. It’s unusual for clubs to make a huge move this early in the season, and this boosts their roster nearly two months before trade talks heat up across the league.
In contrast, the Marlins have a 9-25 record. The two other clubs without 10 wins are the Colorado Rockies (8-24) and the Chicago White Sox (6-26). Injuries have already ended their chances of competing this season, particularly with their starting pitching. Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez will miss the entire season, and the team presently has 11 players on the injured list.
Nonetheless, they finished 84-78 and made the playoffs just last season. Trading Arraez indicates that the front staff does not believe this is just a one-year aberration for a franchise that has been heading upward. He might have anchored their hitting order until 2026, when he was eligible for free agency.
They obtained three prospects in return, including outfielders Dillon Head and Jakob Marsee, as well as first baseman Nathan Martorella. MLB Pipeline ranked them as the Padres’ sixth, ninth, and thirteenth top prospects. Head is in low-A, while Marsee and Martorella are in double-A.
The fourth player they obtained is reliever Woo-Suk Go, who was included in the transaction to cover his pay. The Padres signed him out of Korea this summer to a two-year, $4.5 million contract, but he did not make the team out of spring training. This season, he has allowed seven runs and 18 baserunners in 12 1/3 innings of Double-A action.
Prior to the trade, the Padres’ payroll totaled $165.5 million, while their competitive balance tax assessment was $226.7 million. Acquiring Arraez takes them significantly closer to the initial tax threshold of $237 million. The organization aims to stay beneath that limbo bar, which spurred the Soto deal this offseason, as well as the decision to allow Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and several other key pitchers leave in free agency.
The exchange is a clash of ideals. Despite their self-imposed financial constraints, the Padres continue to add to their squad, hoping to make the postseason this year and beyond. Even though Miami isn’t going anywhere in 2024, they could reorganize for the 2025 season. Instead, they released their best hitter, who still had years of team control. Throughout the franchise’s 31-year history, it appears that anytime they have to pick between loading up or backing down, they always go with the cheaper option.
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