The Atlanta Braves have been baseball’s greatest club during the first month of the 2024 season, and with a deep roster full of experienced stars, opportunities for breakout players have been limited.
That being said, Reynaldo López is off to a great start in his return to the starting rotation after pitching mostly out of the bullpen the previous two seasons, and backup catcher Chadwick Tromp and lefty reliever Dylan Lee have also made some excellent early contributions.
But are those strong starts real?
We’ve discussed whether to purchase or sell those early results based on track records and advanced data.
Dylan Lee, a left-handed pitcher, had a strong debut season with the Atlanta Braves in 2022, posting a 2.13 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 46 games. However, he was largely ineffective last season.
The 29-year-old had a 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 24 appearances last season, and his overall ineffectiveness, along with Tyler Matzek’s injury, left the Braves without a reliable second southpaw to complement A.J. Minter in the 2023 bullpen.
With Matzek back healthy and Aaron Bummer acquired from the Chicago White Sox, the Braves opened the season with a plethora of left-handed bullpen options, but Lee has emerged as the early standout.
He has a 1.46 ERA in seven appearances, but that comes with a 1.22 WHIP and nearly as many walks (7) as strikeouts (9). With minor league options left, it’s not shocking to see him return to Triple-A a couple times this season.
Buying or selling: Sell
RHP Reynaldo López.
During the summer, the Braves signed Reynaldo López to a three-year, $30 million contract with the goal of transforming him back into a starter after making only one start and 128 relief appearances in 2022 and 2023.
He appeared to be a rising star for the Chicago White Sox in 2018, with a 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 151 strikeouts in 188.2 innings at the age of 24, but he failed to capitalize on that early success and was finally demoted to the bullpen.
Last season, the 30-year-old posted a 3.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts in 66 innings while also recording six saves and 22 holds in 68 appearances with the White Sox, Angels, and Guardians.
In five starts in the Atlanta rotation, he has a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 31-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 innings, and his ability to miss bats while also limiting walks better than he did earlier in his career makes his breakout appear to be the genuine deal.
Buying or selling: Buy
C Chadwick Tromp
With Sean Murphy still recovering from an oblique strain sustained on Opening Day, third-string catcher Chadwick Tromp has served as the backup to veteran Travis d’Arnaud for the first month of the season.
The 29-year-old went 2-for-16 with one RBI and seven strikeouts in limited big league action last season, and he has played in 40 games over the last four years, hitting.222 with a 70 OPS+ in 102 plate appearances.
His numbers aren’t particularly impressive, but he has gone 7-for-26 with three doubles and six RBI in ten games, including a stellar 3-for-7 performance with runners in scoring position.
He will most likely return to Triple-A once Murphy recovers, but few clubs can boast a great third catching option in the wings, so he adds vital depth to the organization.
Buying or selling: Buy
