The Atlanta Braves haven’t been too concerned about the New York Mets recently.
After chasing them down in 2022 to win the NL East on the penultimate day, Atlanta had little trouble with the Mets in 2023, going 10-3 against their division opponent and outscoring the Mets by 42 runs in thirteen games.
And the Mets may be even less of a danger in 2024, following the mid-morning announcement of a potentially serious injury to top starting pitcher Kodai Senga.
Senga complained shoulder stiffness on Wednesday and was ruled out of throwing; an MRI revealed a “moderate” posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder.
The shoulder capsule is a fibrous sheath that surrounds the shoulder joint and contains synovial fluid, which reduces friction between surfaces and allows smooth movement. Senga’s strain is located at the posterior, or rear, of the capsule structure.
The Mets’ problem is that shoulder capsule injuries, for example, have more unknowns than rotator cuff injuries, but Senga’s is exacerbated by its position.
95 to 97% of shoulder dislocations are anterior, with only 2 to 4% having anterior injuries, therefore the existing literature on how they recover and how long it takes to return to play is even more limited.
Kyle Wright, a former Braves starter who was transferred to the Kansas City Royals this offseason, missed most of 2023 due to a shoulder issue that necessitated capsule repair surgery in October. He is presently slated to miss the full 2024 season while recovering from the injury.
The organization has already confirmed that Senga will begin the season on the injured list. If he avoids surgery – which is not guaranteed given how unknown these types of injuries are – he may be able to return in 2024. But if Senga needs surgical repair
Senga started only one game in 2023, against Atlanta, pitching six innings, four hits, and three runs while striking out seven in mid-August. The Braves lost 7-6, with Yonny Chirinos (now with the Miami Marlins) allowing six earned runs in just 4.2 innings.
Without Senga, FanGraphs predicts New York’s rotation to be headlined by returning veteran José Quintana and free agents Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.
