Green Bay Packers: It’s Time to Face the Facts About Aaron Jones After Two Straight 100-yard Games

Despite losing two of its greatest wide receivers and its starting tight end, the Green Bay Packers offense looked as strong as it has all season in a 33-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. While Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Luke Musgrave were all ruled out due to injuries, Jordan Love threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns with Bo Melton and Jayden Reed as his primary targets, albeit Reed was only able to play in the first half after reinjuring his chest.

Even after Reed fell down, the offense kept going. Love, as he has done all season, spread the ball around rather than pressing it to a single pass catcher. Of course, for the passing game to be effective, the run game had to be on point as well, which it was for the second consecutive game.

The victory over the Vikings was also the second game in a row in which running back Aaron Jones had 20+ carries and rushed for 120+ yards. With multiple leg problems, the Packers’ third all-time leading rusher has missed or been restricted for the majority of the season. However, he has demonstrated (again) that he is one of the most critical factors in ensuring that the offense runs as smoothly as possible.

However, many anticipate that this will be Jones’ final season in Green Bay. Next season, he will be 30 years old and in the final year of his contract. The Packers are expected to cut him and look to the 2024 NFL Draft for a fresh crop of running backs. Given Jones’ performance over the last two games, however, that may not be the wisest move.

Aaron Jones should be retained by the Green Bay Packers in 2024.

Jones will have a $17.7 million cap charge in the last year of his contract next season. Because he has a dead cap hit of $12.3 million, dismissing him may save the Packers more than $5 million. This, along with his age and injuries this season, are reasons why some believe the Packers may want to replace him.

While these considerations are real and fair, replacing Aaron Jones is not as simple as it appears. Consider the running backs the Packers have utilized while he has been sidelined or limited: AJ Dillon, Patrick Taylor, Emanuel Wilson, James Robinson, and Kenyon Drake. If replacing Jones had been simple, any of them would have remained as the primary back.

The PFF Grades Tell a Clear Story

One of the reasons none of the aforementioned backs could fully replace Jones is the offensive line’s incompetence when it comes to run blocking. Green Bay’s run defense ranks 25th in the NFL, according to PFF, with a 54.6 run blocking grade. Only the Arizona Cardinals (4-12), Carolina Panthers (2-14), New York Jets (6-10), Tampa Bay (8-8), Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7), Los Angeles Chargers (5-11), and New York Giants (5-11) had lower run blocking rankings.

Jones, for his part, has a PFF run grade of 78.2. In other words, Jones is an efficient runner because of his own ability to elude opponents, not because the offensive line creates wide openings for him.

While any running back the Packers select in the upcoming draft could be a powerful runner like Jones, it may take them some time to adjust to running behind a below-average offensive line (in terms of run blocking). It may be a better idea to maintain Jones for the last year of his deal while also replacing some of the line’s weaker connections (right guard and center) with more adept run blockers drafted.

In theory, Jones would be able to help these young linemen overcome their growing pains while Adam Stenavich (offensive coordinator) and Luke Butkus (offensive line coach) helped them improve. Then, in 2025, a fresh starting running back may take over with an experienced and much improved offensive line.

When Aaron Jones has his touches, the Green Bay Packers win.

Jones has had at least 20 carries three times this season: in Week 8 against the Los Angeles Rams, Week 16 against the Panthers, and Sunday night against the Vikings. Green Bay triumphed in all three games.

Jones has only had 20 or more carries in nine games during his career. Green Bay is 8-1 in these games, with their lone defeat coming against the Buffalo Bills in 2022. Jones rushed for 143 yards on 20 carries in that contest.

While it is theoretically feasible for Green Bay to acquire another back like Jones in the 2024 NFL Draft, the likelihood of finding one who can immediately repeat his effect is low. As the statistics above reveal, the Packers’ offense is significantly better with him than without him.

Running back may, and probably should, witness a change of guard in 2025. But it will be interesting to watch what the Packers offense can do with an experienced Love and group of pass catchers, as well as a healthy Jones, in 2024.