The Philadelphia Eagles: It’s the first time in more than 50 years that a healthy 10-1 team has been a home regular-season underdog.

The 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles are a historic underdog against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13.

Few NFL teams have gone 10-1 in the first 12 weeks of the regular season, and even fewer have been considered underdogs, particularly at home. But that’s where the Philadelphia Eagles are heading into their Week 13 game against the San Francisco 49ers.

A home team being booked as the underdog raises some eyebrows in the sports betting community. A home team with a 10-1 record in the NFL being listed as underdogs, on the other hand, is enough to cause a stampede at the betting booths.

While this gambling phenomenon may appear perplexing at first glance, looking back in time and understanding what led us to this point may reveal a lot about both teams and the world of sports betting in general.

Eagles join a select group.
It’s the first time in more than 50 years that a healthy 10-1 team has been a home regular-season underdog.

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles became the first team since Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in 2005 and 2006 to start 10-1 in consecutive seasons with a wild comeback win over the Buffalo Bills this past Sunday.

Nonetheless, the rematch of the NFC Championship Game on Sunday will mark the first time during the regular season since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger that a team with a 10-1 record and a healthy regular starting quarterback is a home underdog.

Overall, the Eagles are the fourth team with a record of 10-1 or better to score points at home. The previous three have all occurred in this century.

Following the 2004 season, the first game to meet the criteria was an AFC Championship game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots. The Steelers had only lost one game this season, while the Patriots had only lost two.

We all know, thanks to the gift of hindsight, that Tom Brady and the Patriots were rightfully favored to win the game. However, it was surprising not to see the Steelers get the nod from the oddsmakers at home at the time.

In the end, New England won 41-27 and went on to win their third Super Bowl in four years.

The next time the 14-1 Green Bay Packers faced the 10-5 Detroit Lions was in Week 17 of the 2011 regular season. The Packers were 6.5-point underdogs at Lambeau Field because they had already secured their playoff spot and decided to rest quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the final game of the season.

The game ended in a spectacular shootout between Detroit’s Matthew Stafford and Green Bay backup Matt Flynn, with the latter throwing for 480 yards and six touchdowns to lead the Packers to a 45-41 victory.

The most recent instance of this rare occurrence occurred near the end of the 2020 presidential campaign. The 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs hosted the 6-9 Los Angeles Chargers in another regular-season finale. With the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye already secured, the Chiefs rested nearly their entire roster and entered the game at Arrowhead as 3.5-point underdogs.

In a 38-21 victory, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert torched the inferior defense for 302 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for another.

Overall, teams meeting the criteria have a 1-2 record for straight-up and against-the-spread bettors.

Against the 49ers, the Eagles were initially favored.

The Eagles were initially favored over the 49ers at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. Philly was a -2.5 favorite on the spread and a -134 favorite on the money line going into this game.

Those figures, however, have flipped. At the midpoint of the week, the major sportsbooks’ updated odds had San Francisco as a one-point favorite. The money then poured in on the 49ers, who are favored by 2.5 to three points depending on where you bet.

There are several reasons for this, but it all boils down to recent performances by both teams and a slew of injuries for Philadelphia.

Despite suffering three consecutive losses earlier in the season, the 49ers have won three straight games in recent weeks. The Niners have won their last three games by an average of 20.7 points since losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. This includes a 34-3 thrashing of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 8-3 and one of the best teams in the AFC.

On the other hand, despite a 10-1 record and some impressive wins over elite teams, Nick Sirianni’s squad has barely beaten a few opponents, including the Patriots and Commanders, who currently have losing records. Their lone loss to the Jets was also disappointing.

Furthermore, they have only won by a margin of 4.75 points in their last four games. It appears that oddsmakers believe the Eagles are due for a “fraud check.”

Philadelphia has suffered a number of significant injuries.

Lane Johnson, the Eagles’ All-Pro offensive tackle who missed last week’s game against the Buffalo Bills due to scar tissue from a previous injury, says he will play against the 49ers. But it’s difficult to believe the four-time Pro Bowler will be at full strength.

Ending on a cliff Dallas Goedert, who suffered a forearm injury against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9, is attempting to return against the 49ers. However, he will most likely need another week off, and his presence will undoubtedly be missed given his average of 5.8 targets per game.

Furthermore, key players like defensive tackles Fletcher Cox and Milton Williams were listed as DNP and LP at practice earlier this week. Zach Cunningham, an inside linebacker, was also listed as a DNP.

While wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are expected to play, the Eagles were cautious enough to list them as limited participants.

Overall, the Eagles are a bit banged up right now, which comes at an inopportune time because they’ll need all hands on deck to beat San Francisco.

The Eagles could face some mismatches against the Niners.

The Eagles vs. Niners game is truly a “1A vs. 1B” type of matchup, as both are currently intimidating opponents for any NFL team on a weekly basis.

It’s no secret that the 49ers have a devastating defense, and what was already a punishing unit was bolstered by the midseason addition of Chase Young. San Francisco allows the fewest points in the league (170), and their 21 takeaways rank second only to the Denver Broncos. They also have 33 sacks, which puts them in the top ten.

With recent injuries on the offensive line and at tight end, the Eagles may face some matchup issues and may struggle against the Niners’ pass rush.

With several defensive injuries, Philadelphia may struggle to contain San Francisco’s offense, which averages 28.2 points per game. So, unless Brock Purdy loses the use of his throwing arm, as he did in the NFC title game 10 months ago, the Niners will score some points.

It’s worth noting that while both teams have scored 310 points, San Francisco has produced the same number despite having 70 fewer offensive plays. As a result, the oddsmakers may have felt compelled to favor the healthier team.

The Eagles-49ers matchup is unquestionably the main event of Week 13, as the NFC’s two best teams prepare to reignite a rivalry that determined who represented the conference in the Super Bowl last season.

Regardless of the odds, this has the potential to be one of the year’s most entertaining games.