LANDOVER, MD - SEPTEMBER 24: Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard (43) celebrates his interception with cornerback Tre'Davious White (27) during the NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and the Washington Commanders on September 24, 2023 at Fed Ex Field in Landover, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
After a humiliating defeat, heads roll. That’s how the NFL works.
The Buffalo Bills chose offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to take the blame following the team’s 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.
Regardless of the fact that Dorsey does not coach the defense that had 12 men on the field at the end of the game, a penalty that gave the Broncos a second chance at the game-winning field goal after Wil Lutz missed his first. Or that the Bills’ offense has been adequate for the majority of the season. Or that the offense had the worst starting field position in the league from weeks five to ten, owing largely to defensive injuries. Or that Dorsey didn’t call plays that resulted in drops or fumbles, which have plagued his team in recent weeks.
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It also doesn’t seem to matter that the Bills’ five losses this season have all come in one-possession games, which are notoriously unreliable for judging any team.
When times are desperate, organizations feel compelled to act. And the Bills have been in desperate mode since their 13-second playoff loss to Kansas City in 2022. It’s why they gave Von Miller a massive contract in free agency in 2022, and why they abruptly fired defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier last offseason, despite Frazier delivering a top-seven unit.
Someone has to take the blame when you’re 5-5 in a supposed Super Bowl season.
However, Dorsey should not be completely blameless. Yes, Dorsey’s offense was third in the league in DVOA, first in success rate, third in EPA per play, third in yards per play, second in third-down conversion%, and third in redzone efficiency at the time of his firing. Choose your metric, and the Bills will be in the top three. However, it is difficult to separate the impact of the coach from Allen’s individual excellence; letting Dorsey go is the Bills’ way of saying that the offense performed despite the architecture built by the coach.
Allen is the next person to be blamed after Dorsey. This week marked the beginning of Allen’s ‘are we sure he’s good’ phase, which will be quickly followed by the traditional ‘why can’t he get it done in the big one’ sequel. What nonsense. Allen is ranked second in the RBSDM composite, which measures the value of a play and how much of that value can be attributed to the quarterback.
Still, yards and fancy metrics do not decide games. Turnovers occur.
Allen’s turnover rate remains among the highest in the league. Allen has led the NFL in turnovers since 2022, throwing 25 interceptions (the most in the league) and losing eight fumbles (the second-most in the league). However, there is noise in those numbers. Turnover luck is unpredictable; a fumbled ball may bounce to an opponent or a teammate. And, in comparison to last year, Allen has been less reckless this season. PFF determined that 4.2% of Allen’s throws were turnover-worthy last season. This season, that figure has dropped to 2.4%, ranking him 27th among eligible quarterbacks and better than the three frontrunners for MVP, Patrick Mahomes (3.3%), Jalen Hurts (3.2%), and Lamar Jackson (3%).
The eye test backs up those figures. Allen has learned to control his own worst instincts. The Bills’ offense was a jumbled mess for much of last season. Too often, it was split in two, with a bunch of deep threats on top and a get-out-of-jail-free card on the bottom, and nothing in between. It was an offense that struggled to challenge all three levels of the field while also catering to Allen’s love of HeroBall. When defenses figured out how to exploit Buffalo’s lopsided set-up, neither Allen nor Dorsey were able to come up with solutions that balanced the quarterback’s needs with the coach’s desires.
To address this, the Bills have invested heavily in surrounding Allen with talent, including strengthening the offensive line, drafting and trading for multiple running backs, and dipping into the draft to add a pass catcher. They selected tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the most recent draft to pair with Pro Bowl tight end Dawson Knox.
It was all part of a bigger picture. Brandon Beane, the Bills’ general manager, wanted to modernize the offense. We’re talking about positionless football, multiple formations, and interchangeable players who can switch between formation spots and create matchup nightmares for opposing defenses.
However, Beane’s strategy overlooked a couple of critical points. To begin with, if you’re going to run an offense centered on two tight ends, those tight ends must be respected as tight ends – which the Bills duo are not.
Kincaid and Knox are two wide receivers disguised as tight ends. The goal of the Bills’ two tight end sets is for the offense to get big and bully defenses in the run game. This should force their opponents to keep their own big boys on the field in order to slow the run. The Bills offense can then split into passing formations, causing the opposing defense to become confused.However, Kincaid and Knox aren’t good enough blockers to help the Bills’ run game (the team averages 3.3 yards per carry) and aren’t quick enough to challenge defenses like true wide receivers. If the opposing defense doesn’t believe the two tight ends are there to help run the ball, the Bills are left with two taller, slower receivers on the field against a defense built to stop the pass.
What’s better than a positionless offense in which tight ends and running backs serve as substitute receivers? Having a good, dependable backup receiver. The Bills lack a receiver who can consistently win one-on-one competition outside of Stefon Diggs. They haven’t drafted a wide receiver in the first three rounds since 2017. All of their free-agent signings have been duds. Gabe Davis has been the team’s No. 2 option since Cole Beasley was first excommunicated, which appears to be a move designed to have the Bills Mafia throw their TVs into Lake Erie.
Diggs and Davis are the team’s top scorers. Following that, it’s a free for all. Only 21% of the 172 targets Allen has given to players other than his top two receivers have gone to wideouts.
In theory, positionless football sounds fantastic. When it comes to third-and-must-have-it, it’s useful to have specialists on hand. The inability to surround Allen with a secondary receiving corps has resulted in long stretches of frustration in the passing game, with Allen forcing the issue when his receivers are not open. When he’s at his best, the offense moves quickly. Otherwise, the Bills will turn the ball over. The error margin is too narrow.
If you look hard enough, there are still reasons to be optimistic. Despite its staccato feel, the Bills offense has been one of the best in the league according to the underlying metrics. Reduce critical errors, and more one-score games should favor Buffalo. However, the team’s upcoming schedule is a test. The Bills will host the Jets and Cowboys, as well as travel to Kansas City and Philadelphia, over the next month. With a couple of difficult games remaining on the schedule, they could be 6-9 or worse by the end of that run.
“The clock is ticking,” said Allen this week. He was referring to the Bills’ current season, but he could just as easily have been referring to the team’s Super Bowl window.
Being the face of a franchise entails bearing the brunt of the flaws of those around you. Allen’s sloppiness has been a source of concern, but Buffalo’s problems are much larger than their star quarterback.
