Analysis of Leicester City’s 2-0 win against Stoke City, including how Maresca is avoiding complacency and weariness, the necessity for skilled safe-crackers, and the math of promotion.
Who will be able to halt Leicester City? Maybe it’s just them at this point.
Their 10th win in 11 Championship games seemed unavoidable. There were minimal pre-match nerves in the audience. Fans were not only there to watch their team play, but also to see them win.
They now know what to expect, with matches following a similar pattern: City will dominate the ball and try as many different combinations as they can to crack the lock. They will most likely succeed with patience and hard work.
READ MORE: Stoke manager makes Leicester City claim after demonstrating approach is ineffective against Enzo Maresca’s side
READ MORE: Enzo Maresca has a strategy with Kelechi Iheanacho and Jamie Vardy to avoid a task that ‘no human being’ can perform.
With visitors Stoke battling for form and fitness, there was even more optimism that City would overcome their opposition. Indeed, with Enzo Maresca’s side controlling the ball more than ever before – they had 89 percent possession in the first quarter of the game – and with the back three stationed further up the field than ever before, they scored their earliest home goal of the season, Kelechi Iheanacho scoring after 24 minutes.
Despite the sense of impending doom, it wasn’t simple. City’s investigations frequently fell short of locating a blue shirt in the box. They had little opportunities in the first hour.
They were not as crisp on the ball as they could be, appearing to play in first gear for long stretches. At times, the first touches were sloppy. Jannik Vestergaard and Kieran Dewsbury-Hall both put their hands up in exasperation during the first half because Hamza Choudhury and Abdul Fatawu, respectively, had turned off and not moved into the space where the ball was clearly going to be delivered into.
Then, within 30 seconds of the second half’s start, Stoke had their finest chance, with Nathan Lowe headed over after a fast move caught City off guard. This may appear to be nitpicking, but City’s performance has set incredibly high expectations.
Right now, it appears that complacency is the most serious threat to City’s success. It isn’t a problem right now, but it may be. The certainty of triumph has the potential to trigger a loss of concentration. What is evident is that their gameplan, how they’re growing at it, and the caliber of their players will not stand in their way of promotion.
Maresca’s strategy for dealing with two potential issues
So, how can they avoid complacency? Maresca is already hard at work on it. Making six changes for a league game, especially before a two-week international break, is unusual in the league, but it is for the City boss.
With Harry Souttar’s first league start of the season on Saturday, City now have 22 players who have started a Championship game this season. Only basement club Sheffield Wednesday has a higher number.
And that figure could climb more. Marc Albrighton, Tom Cannon, and Patson Daka are all waiting for their first league debuts this season for City. This week, Maresca disputed City had exorbitant squad depth, pointing out that Choudhury was needed to play in a position he was not entirely suited to, but they do either have more players than their opponents, or they have a manager who is ready to place his faith in a larger proportion of his team.
Perhaps it’s both. Because of Maresca’s constant rotation, 17 different City players have now played more than 200 minutes this season. Before you can find a club with more players achieving that figure, you have to go down to Millwall in 15th place.
It serves two purposes. Resting players decreases the danger of injury and provides for physical and mental breaks, which should result in more players available and at the peak of their game in the final few months of the season.
It also keeps everyone on their toes. When every player understands the management will rotate and a teammate has regular opportunities to stake a claim, standards are less likely to slide. This is also why Maresca does not divulge his starting lineup to his players until a few hours before kickoff. Everyone is kept on their toes. There will be no slacking in the final training session of the week if every player still believes they have a chance to make the weekend’s 11-man squad.
There is a shared role at the outset. Jamie Vardy has played 510 Championship minutes thus far, while Kelechi Iheanacho has played 480. It doesn’t appear that either will tire themselves out, nor does the task of goal scoring fall exclusively on either.
So, while complacency and squad fitness appear to be the only roadblocks in City’s path, Maresca is already erasing them before they even appear. It’s simply another indication of excellent management.
The city must strive hard to become skilled safecrackers.
It is evident what City must continue to work on at the training ground. When they face a deep-set defense, games remain the most tough for them.
Even with two midfielders in their backline, Stoke City were difficult to beat for long stretches of the game. They set it up that way because they know it is the greatest method to deny City.
While Maresca’s men are growing better at penetrating gaps in opposing defenses, they clearly have more to improve. They will want to learn how to use safe-crackers.
It is evident what City must continue to focus on at the training facility. When they face a deep-set defense, games are still the most tough for them.
Stoke, despite having two midfielders in their backline, were difficult to beat for long stretches of the game. They set it up that way because they know it is the greatest option for denying City.
While Maresca’s men are growing better at penetrating gaps in opposing defenses, there is clearly room for improvement. They’ll want to learn how to use safe-crackers.
Because there are no issues when games start up. City had five shots to Stoke’s two in the first 70 minutes on Saturday. When the Potters pushed higher in pursuit of an equalizer, it backfired. City had nine shots in the final 20 minutes against none for Stoke.
Teams’ individual talent can be displayed when they open up versus City, when there is space to exploit. Wilfred Ndidi, a man rejuvenated under Maresca, had a chance to score a hat-trick in the final quarter.
When teams go toe-to-toe with them, they have no issues. That bodes well for when they meet more progressive teams.
Maresca responds sarcastically to the progress report
When a team is playing this well and producing results like City’s just a few months into a manager’s reign, doubts about how good they may become will be raised. Maresca heightened excitement when he stated around the end of August that his team was just 10 to 20% of the way through their voyage.
With the international break in October approaching, it seemed like the perfect time to get a status update from the boss. The problem is that things have been going so smoothly that Maresca is now on expectation management and thus responded sarcastically.
“We are 100 percent!” he exclaimed. “You know why, because I said 20% and you start saying, ‘Only 20%!'” ‘Imagine us when we’re 100!’ So, no, we are not 100. It’s difficult to do better than this!”
He then said solemnly, “You cannot measure.” We’re getting better. We need to improve significantly because we will encounter these kind of games frequently.
“We’re on the right track. Now, whether we are 40, 50, or 60, I don’t know; all I can say is that, as you can see, they are working hard, and we are attempting to combine winning and playing well.”
Maresca welcomes supporters’ excitement and high dreams. Just don’t expect him to participate openly for the time being.
Promotional math appears to be quite promising.
So 30 points out of a potential 33 is rather a lot. A 10-point cushion inside the automatic promotion spots is significant. And it feels like enough time has passed for some speculative math.
The average amount of points required to finish in the top two during the last ten seasons is 86. City needs 19 more wins to reach 87, which means they can afford to lose points in 16 of their remaining 35 games.
In 11 games, they have only lost one point. Since the international break in September, not only have the results been flawless, but City has not looked like drawing, let alone losing.
Based on the games thus far, it appears that City dropping points in as many as 16 matches would be a major surprise. Even the most pessimistic supporters would have to concede that promotion is a very real possibility.
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